Pokemon GO


Shinies

This is the output of my wild shiny eligible encounter log script since November 16, 2018, as well as a record of all shinies encountered since that date. The first three lines are the summaries for two accounts labelled "maya" and "mali". I've only kept careful track of the encounters for "maya" but it's a reasonably assumption that second account (used by my daughter) is nearly identical.

The second group of lines are the counts of shiny eligible encounters at different dates (first column) followed by the cumulative count of encounters since start date (second column), count since last date (third column), and the total number of encounters of the shiny eligible species (fourth column). This fourth column of course is not very useful and primarily serves as a sanity check.

The third group of lines is shinies actually encountered. The prefix "s" followed by the date of the encounter(s), followed by four columns of counts (wild shinies-maya, wild shinies-mali, other shinies-maya, other shinies-mali) and then the identities of the shinies. The wild shinies come first and then other shinies (events, community days, shiny meltan, etc.) come after the "|" symbol.

I also have all the raw counts for each shiny eligible species which was processed to generate the data below which I can make available upon request or will put it up at some point.

maya:   9 wild shinies from ~5572 encounters (rate: 619.1) +  36 event/community day shinies = 45 total since 16nov18
mali:  14 wild shinies from ~5572 encounters (rate: 398.0) +  28 event/community day shinies = 42 total since 16nov18
cumulative rate is one shiny for every 484.5 encounters

16nov18    0    0 20387
17nov18   63   63 20450
18nov18  208  145 20595
20nov18  284   76 20671
21nov18  379   95 20766
22nov18  535  156 20922
23nov18  572   37 20959
25nov18  730  158 21117
27nov18  784   54 21171
28nov18  829   45 21216
30nov18  877   48 21264
03dec18 1459  582 21846
06dec18 1533   74 21920
12dec18 1679  146 22066
15dec18 1740   61 22127
19dec18 1899  159 22286
26dec18 2169  270 22556
27dec18 2239   70 22626
03jan19 2474  235 22861
11jan19 2622  148 23009
16jan19 2738  116 23125
22jan19 3091  353 23478
27jan19 3283  192 23670
28jan19 3393  110 23780
30jan19 3470   77 23857
04feb19 3619  149 24006
07feb19 3702   83 24089
11feb19 3860  158 24247
17feb19 4092  232 24479
20feb19 4168   76 24555
23feb19 4482  314 24869
28feb19 4658  176 25045
05mar19 4877  219 25264
11mar19 5190  313 25577
20mar19 5572  382 25959

s 16nov18 1 0 0  0  maya: bulb
s 21nov18 2 1 0  0  maya: eeve x 2 | mali: natu
s 23nov18 0 1 0  0  mali: cubo
s 03dec18 0 1 15 8  mali: pine | maya: bulb x 2 + char x 2 + squi + pika x 4 + mare x 5 + drat & mali: char x 2 + squi + pika + larv x 3 + beld - community weekend event
s 15dec18 1 0 0  0  maya: cate
s 16dec18 0 2 0  0  mali: pine + magb
s 27dec18 1 1 0  0  maya: snor & mali: snor
s 10jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: magb
s 12jan19 0 1 8  3  mali: murk | maya: toto x 8 & mali: toto x 3 - community day event
s 19jan19 0 0 3  1  maya: minu | maya: feeb x 3 & mali: feeb - feebas event
s 21jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: minu
s 27jan19 2 1 0  0  maya: psyd + zigz & mali: psyd
s 07feb19 0 1 0  0  mali: murk
s 08feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 11feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 16feb19 0 0 7  7  | maya: swin x 7 & mali swin x 7 - community day
s 20feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: pine
s 23feb19 0 1 3  7  mali: pine | maya: clam x 3 & mali: clam x 6 + latias
s 28feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: eevee
s 10mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: cate
s 20mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: solr


Lucky trades

This reports the distribution (histogram) of lucky trades since I started keeping track of them. The first line below gives the start trade, the end trade, the total trades made, the number of luckies encountered, and the average number of trades made to obtain a lucky trade.

The second group of lines gives the histogram values. The first column is the range when the lucky trade occurred and the second is count. For instance, 18 luckies were encountered between 0-10 trades (first line), and so on. The one thing I got out of this is that if you don't encounter a lucky by the 20th trade or so, it might not happen for a while (as many as 100 trades, which is when I decided to start keeping track, but easily 30+ and sometimes more). Most of the luckies happen before the 20th trade (which is natural given the odds) but if it doesn't, best to keep trading throwaways until you encounter the lucky. This is especially relevant for the timing of legendary/special trades.

The third group twenty lines shows the frequency of when the trade becomes lucky. First column is count and second is the number of trades made when the lucky happened. For instance, a trade became lucky at the 3rd trade since the last lucky trade five times (first line), and so on.

Start: 2310 | End: 3267 | Total: 957 | Luckies: 52 | Average: 18.40

 0-10 18
11-20 16
21-30 5
31-40 9
41-50 1
51-60 1
61-   2

   5 3
   4 8
   4 12
   2 6
   2 4
   2 39
   2 35
   2 34
   2 31
   2 29
   2 20
   2 19
   2 18
   2 16
   2 14
   2 1
   1 9
   1 70
   1 7
   1 69

Pseudointellectual ramblings || Ram Samudrala || me@ram.org